Know the true odds of a pick'em line before you take it
Pick'em apps post a projection and a payout, never a probability. Locktopus matches each PrizePicks, Underdog and Betr Picks line to the sportsbooks pricing the same player, market and number, strips the vig, and shows the real chance the better side hits, next to the break-even your entry type needs.
- PrizePicks, Underdog, Betr Picks
- Devigged from sportsbook prices
- Break-even per entry type
- Slip EV on the real legs
How the DFS board works
From a projection to a probability you can judge
- 1
Match the line to the market
Every projection is matched to the sportsbooks quoting that exact player, market and line. The operator's own price is never an input: it is a payout structure, not an opinion on probability.
- 2
Devig to a true probability
Each book's two-sided price has its margin removed and the results are combined into one fair probability for the side more likely to land. The Books count shows how many books backed it.
- 3
Compare against the break-even
Pick the app and entry type you are playing and every row is shaded by its edge over the per-leg probability that entry needs to break even. Add legs to a slip to see its expected value.
What is on the board
Everything a payout table leaves out
Three operators, one layout
Switch between Underdog, PrizePicks and Betr Picks and read each board the same way, with the same probability math behind every row.
Break-evens from the payout table
A 3-pick entry paying 6x needs each leg to hit 55% of the time; one paying 5x needs 58.5%. The break-even is derived from each entry's multipliers, so a leg can be worth taking on one app and not the other.
Power, Flex and Insured entries
All-or-nothing Power plays from 2 to 6 picks, plus PrizePicks Flex and Underdog Insured entries with partial payouts. Each has its own break-even and its own slip valuation.
Slip EV on the actual legs
The board's break-even assumes equal legs. A slip is valued on the real distribution of how many of its legs land across every payout rung, and it warns when legs share a game.
Honest about what it cannot price
When no sportsbook prices both sides of a line there is nothing to devig, so the row shows a dash instead of an invented number.
Filter by side, stat and player
Show Overs, Unders or both, narrow to one stat, search a player, and hide the book columns you do not care about. Every league the operators post is on by default.
Betting the same props at a sportsbook? See Prop Outliers
The DFS board tells you the fair chance of a line. Prop Outliers works the other way round, finding the player props where one sportsbook is paying at least 10% more than the market average.
Who DFS is for
Pick'em players choosing by feel
A projection with a payout attached tells you nothing about how often it lands. The % Chance column puts a number on it, sourced from the books that price the same line.
Anyone playing more than one app
The same 57% leg can be profitable on one app's 3-pick and dead money on another's. The break-even column makes that visible without any mental math.
Bettors who want to see the shortfall
A shaded row is an edge over break-even; an unshaded one is a leg not to take. The shading is reserved for profit, so a plain board is a board telling you to wait.
Frequently asked questions
What is the DFS page?
It lists the projections PrizePicks, Underdog and Betr Picks are offering and shows the probability each one actually hits, calculated from the sportsbooks pricing the same market, alongside the break-even your entry type needs.
Where does the % chance come from?
We find every sportsbook quoting the same player, market and line, remove the vig from their two-sided prices, and combine the results into one probability for the side more likely to hit. The operator's own payout never touches the number.
Why is the operator's own price not used?
A pick'em price is a payout structure, not an opinion. An operator quotes the same price on both sides of every projection regardless of how likely it is, so including it would drag every probability toward a coin flip.
What is a break-even probability?
The per-leg win probability at which an entry type returns exactly what it costs, derived from its payout multipliers. A 3-pick all-or-nothing entry paying 6x breaks even at 55% per leg; the same entry paying 5x needs 58.5%.
Why do some rows show a dash instead of a percentage?
Because no sportsbook is pricing both sides of that exact line, so there is nothing honest to devig. Rather than guess, the row shows a dash, and the Books column tells you how many books backed the rows that do have a number.
How is DFS different from Prop Outliers?
Prop Outliers finds player props where one sportsbook pays far more than the market average, for betting at that book. DFS prices pick'em projections against the sportsbook market so you can judge them against a fixed payout table.
Which pick'em apps are supported?
Underdog, PrizePicks and Betr Picks. Each has its own payout table on the page, which is what the break-even column is derived from. Sleeper is not supported because it no longer has a data source.
Which plan includes DFS?
DFS is part of the Pro plan and up and is currently in beta. Signed-out visitors and Basic subscribers see a limited preview of the board.
Related features
Prop Outliers
Player props where one sportsbook is paying far more than the rest.
Positive EV
Every bet priced better than the market's fair odds, ranked by edge.
Odds Screen
Every sportsbook's price on every game line and player prop, in one table.
Stop picking on a feeling
Open the board, choose your app and entry type, and see which projections clear their break-even right now.