Bet smarter, with +EV Bets.
Everyone knows the expression “the house always wins.”
When you +EV bet, that changes.
+EV Betting Explained
Let's start with flipping a real coin.
HEADS
Heads
50% chance
TAILS
Tails
50% chance
Now imagine you're offered this bet:
HEADS
Heads
You win $120
TAILS
Tails
You lose $100
Should you take this bet?
Yes. Every single time.
Even though you lose sometimes,
the payout is tilted in your favor.
Win $120 half the time.
Lose $100 half the time.
↓
Avg. Profit per Flip = $10
The more flips you do, the more you are expected to win.
Do 1 flip, you can lose $100.
Do 1,000 flips, you're expected to be up...
+$10,000
You won't win every flip. But in the long run, the math is on your side.
Now let's replace the coin with a sportsbook.
Sportsbooks set odds on thousands of bets every day.
Sometimes they get it wrong. Enter Locktopus.
Real, simplified example
Steph Curry over 24.5 points
The market says the fair odds of Curry 25+ points is +100.
Based on the market, you have a 50% chance of winning.
FanDuel
+100
DraftKings
+100
Caesars
+100
Hard Rock
+125
Mispriced
Should you take this bet?
Yes. Every single time.
Even though you lose sometimes,
the payout is tilted in your favor.
Win $125 half the time.
Lose $100 half the time.
↓
Avg. Profit per Flip = $12.50
The more flips you do, the more you are expected to win.
Do 1 bet, you can lose $100.
Do 1,000 flips, you're expected to be up...
+$12,500
You won't win every bet. But in the long run, the math is on your side.