Bet the old price before slow sportsbooks catch up
When Pinnacle or FanDuel moves a line, slower sportsbooks keep selling the old price for a few minutes. Steam Tracker lists those prices while they are still +EV, with the move, the fair price, a quarter-Kelly stake and a chart of how each book priced it.
- Watches Pinnacle and FanDuel
- Pregame lines only
- Quarter-Kelly stake sizing
- Price chart for every play
How Steam Tracker works
From a sharp book's move to a price you can still take
- 1
Spot the move
Locktopus watches the live feed from the reference books you pick, Pinnacle and FanDuel by default. A move is a change in implied probability of at least 1% inside the last hour, and you can tighten or loosen both.
- 2
Find who has not moved
For each moved line we check every other sportsbook you use. If one still pays the price it posted before the move, on the same line, it is stale and becomes a play.
- 3
Check it is still +EV
The stale price is scored against the market's fair price, the same worst-case devig the Positive EV board uses. Only plays at or above your minimum EV stay on the list.
- 4
Open it and bet
Each play shows the move, the fair price, the edge and a quarter-Kelly stake, with a chart of how the reference books and the stale book priced it, and a link to the bet.
Why chase the old price, not the side
The edge is in the lag, so the page is built around how long it lasts
The old price is the bet
Once every book has moved, the sharp side costs full price: you are paying for someone else's information. Steam Tracker lists the price that has not moved yet, and drops it when it does.
Follow the books worth following
Pinnacle and FanDuel are the default references, the two books whose moves paid in the backtest below. You can also follow Kalshi, Novig and ProphetX, though exchange moves did worse than no move in that backtest.
Set the rules
Choose the reference books, how many must have moved, the window, the smallest move, the minimum EV, and which books and markets to bet into. Your settings are saved with the page.
Quarter-Kelly stake
Every play carries a stake sized at a quarter of the Kelly bet for your bankroll, so a short-lived edge is sized for how long it may last.
See what each book did
A step chart shows the moved reference books, the stale book and the consensus fair price over the last 15 minutes to 3 hours, so you can tell a lag from a line that was always off.
Pregame and honest about it
A game that has started drops off the list. We have no track record of our own for Steam Tracker yet, and we do not quote one.
- 76.9%
- of stale +EV prices after a Pinnacle move beat the closing line, against 64.9% with no move (Matt Downs, 6-month backtest)
- 45.7%
- of those old prices were gone within 15 minutes (same backtest, not Locktopus data)
Want the edge without the clock?
Positive EV lists every price beating the market's fair odds, moved or not. Steam Tracker narrows that to the ones a sharp book's move has just made stale.
Who Steam Tracker is for
Bettors who can act in minutes
The old price is often gone within a quarter of an hour. If you can place a bet quickly from a link, the lag is where the edge is.
Players of props and moneylines
The backtest behind the idea covered NBA, NHL, NFL and MLB props and moneylines at the major US books. Team totals and alt lines were not tested there.
Sharp-plan subscribers
Steam Tracker is part of the Sharp plan, next to live odds and custom book weightings.
Frequently asked questions
What is Steam Tracker?
Steam Tracker is a Locktopus tool that lists stale sportsbook prices. When Pinnacle or FanDuel moves a line, slower books often keep the old price for minutes, and Steam Tracker shows those prices while they are still +EV.
What is steam in sports betting?
Steam is a fast line move across the market, usually triggered by a sharp bettor or a sharp book changing its price. Slower books follow a little later, which leaves a short window where their old price is out of date.
How long does a stale price last?
Not long. In the 6-month backtest by Matt Downs that inspired this tool, 45.7% of old prices were gone within 15 minutes, and how long they last varies by book. That backtest is not Locktopus data.
Does following a sharp move actually beat the closing line?
In that same backtest, stale +EV prices after a Pinnacle move beat the closing line 76.9% of the time, against 64.9% for similar prices with no move. It is third-party research, not a Locktopus track record, and it guarantees nothing.
Which sharp books does it follow?
Pinnacle and FanDuel by default. You can add Kalshi, Novig and ProphetX and choose how many must have moved. The exchanges start switched off, since following their moves did worse than no move in the backtest.
How is Steam Tracker different from Positive EV?
Positive EV lists every price better than fair, whether or not anything moved. Steam Tracker lists only prices that look stale because a reference book just moved, shows the move, and orders them by recency by default.
Which plan includes Steam Tracker?
Steam Tracker is part of the Sharp plan. Free, Basic and Pro accounts see the page locked behind an upgrade prompt.
Related features
Positive EV
Every bet priced better than the market's fair odds, ranked by edge.
Prop Outliers
Player props where one sportsbook is paying far more than the rest.
Arbitrage
Both sides of one market at two sportsbooks, with the stakes that lock in the profit.
My Bets
Log your bets, see the closing line value on each one, and know if your edge is real.
Catch the old price while it lasts
Steam Tracker lists stale sportsbook prices after sharp line moves, on the Sharp plan.